Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Media: Newspapers find unlikely hero in e-reader

By J. Sturgeon | Financial Post | Dec. 29, 2009

It is known as an e-reader now, yet 10 years out, it may have earned the title e-saviour for the journalism profession.

Eight years ago, Apple introduced the iPod, a portable media player that helped curb mounting losses for record labels by convincing music lovers to once again pay for songs through its iTunes digital store.

Now, the Kindle, a device made by U.S. online book retailer Amazon, is showing early signs of having the same effect on the troubled newspaper industry.

The device, which went on sale a few months ago, is also portable and its matte screen offers a more enjoyable reading experience than laptops. Little wonder that newspapers (the National Post included) have rushed to sign deals with Amazon to distribute their content.

The results have been optimistic. Many early adopters of the Kindle are choosing to pay to get their paper on the e-reader instead of for free via the Internet. If all goes well, newspapers may have found a life line to stem the loss of readers and revenues. The device could also allow publishers to scale back the use of expensive printing presses.

However, the Kindle, and e-readers in general at the moment, are not without challenges.

"The barriers to entry are still too high for consumers as well as publishers," says Carmi Levy, a London, Ont.-based independent technology analyst. Amazon has lowered the price, but the Kindle still retails for about US$250.

Moreover for cash-strapped newspapers, finding resources to customize their content for a technology that has not yet fully proven itself is a gamble, Mr. Levy says.

The first iteration of the device is also a bit clumsy. Unlike the ultra-simple iPod, the Kindle is a challenge to navigate.

"We haven't yet seen the iPod of e-readers," Mr. Levy says. But we will - and as early as next year.

Apple is rumoured to be on the brink of introducing its "tablet." Details are light, but the tablet is speculated to be a touchscreen device about the same dimensions as the Kindle and will connect to the Web wirelessly.

If Apple has the same level of success it has had with iTunes, the tablet could once again convince readers that news is worth paying for.

That would be music to the ears of publishers everywhere.

jasturgeon@nationalpost.com

Monday, December 21, 2009

Telecom: Virgin Mobile boldy moving up market to ward off new threats

By J. Sturgeon | Financial Post | 12.21.2009

Competition will be the watchword for Canada's wireless industry next year, as established players face off against a cast of new entrants poised to steal market share.

While the current operators are talking tough, questioning whether any of the new startups have the right strategy or wherewithal to challenge meaningfully, a shakeup of the entire sector looms.

Nowhere are the crosshairs of the new players trained more closely than on the lower end of the market -- existing cellphone users who merely want inexpensive voice and text-messaging services or Canadians who own no mobile phone because they find current prices prohibitive.

It means the discount or "flanker" brands of Canada's big three wireless firms -- Fido, owned by Rogers Communications Inc., Koodo, owned by Telus Corp., as well as Solo and Virgin Mobile Canada, owned by BCE Inc. -- will face the fiercest competition.

For one of them, the threat is affecting a reinvention, says its president.

"Early next year, we'll be in the first phases of a very different Virgin," said Robert Blumenthal, the head of Virgin Mobile Canada.

What that means is unclear -- Mr. Blumenthal is mum on details. But he did reveal that Virgin will begin selling Apple Inc.'s iPhone.

It is a move, he says, that signifies a transition at Virgin from a discount sibling to BCE's Bell Canada, which fully acquired it this spring, to a full-weight partner, offering a complete suite of services for consumers who are increasingly demanding faster and more sophisticated devices.

"You'll see a great expansion in our portfolio and us being able to offer higher-value devices and services," he said in an interview last week. "Where we had been traditionally lower down in the marketplace, we'll be expanding to realize our true potential."

In the new year, Public Mobile Inc., DAVE Wireless Inc. and Videotron ltee will all launch, joining WIND Mobile, which began offering services last week in Toronto and Calgary. DAVE and Videotron have been quiet on their plans, but Public Mobile has stated repeatedly it will offer cheap, flat-rate voice and text services for perhaps $40 a month across its coverage areas between Windsor, Ont., and southern Quebec -- the most populous region in the country.

Mr. Blumenthal says the threat is overstated, but admits that pricing pressure will be a theme for next year and that Virgin is "considering everything."

One thing is for certain: He wants Virgin to get simple.

As it stands, Virgin offers dozens of prepaid and contract plans, not to mention several "add-on" options. "The easier you can make the decision, the easier to sell, the easier to buy. It helps sales and it helps the consumer make choice," he said.

Virgin Mobile, a subsidiary of the U.K. conglomerate, originally entered Canada four years ago with its celebrity CEO Sir Richard Branson partnering with Bell. The Montreal firm supported Virgin with its network in exchange for shared revenues.

In May, Bell acquired Mr. Branson's half for $143-million while agreeing to continue paying licensing fees. It was then that Mr. Blumenthal, a former Telus executive, joined Virgin.

The division has become a key driver of wireless growth for Bell. Analysts suggest Virgin now occupies as much as 15% of the telecommunication giant's wireless base.

However, if it is to maintain momentum, Mr. Blumenthal says Virgin must leverage Bell's new network upgrade to capture higher-margin smartphone users, which make up the fastest-growing market segment.

"Over time, I have a belief that as more people become wireless users and their wireless usage becomes more of a necessity than a luxury ... people tend to move up."

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Monday, November 02, 2009

Telecom: Wireless startup shut out by regulator

J. Sturgeon | Financial Post | Oct. 1, 2009

Globalive Wireless's bid to become the country's fourth major cellphone provider was stopped dead in its tracks on Thursday after the industry's regulator said the company was controlled by its foreign backer and offside with Canadian telecom law.

The fledging Toronto-based carrier has been preparing for months to shake up Canada's staid wireless market, and was to introduce services in Calgary and Toronto within weeks.

Those plans have been in limbo for the last month as the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission has deliberated on whether or not Globalive -- which is almost totally reliant on a Egyptian carrier Orascom Telecom Holdings (OTH) for its financing, technical expertise, even branding -- was in fact Canadian. Domestic ownership is a requirement under the current regulatory framework.

"The Commission considered whether non-Canadians do not own or control Globalive as currently structured. The Commission determined that Globalive does not meet that test," the regulator said.

The decision will surely be seen as shocking to Globealive and its backers, but a relief to the country's big wireless carriers.

Earlier this year, critics led by Rogers Communications Inc., BCE Inc. (Bell Canada) and Telus Corp. attacked Globalive's partnership with Orascom -- a wireless behemoth and the largest provider in the Middle East. They charged that the US$700-million Orascom pledged to the startup combined with its operational involvement handed the foreigner de facto control.

A lot is at stake for the incumbents who pull in hundreds of millions in profits annually selling wireless plans to Canadians that rank among the most expensive in the world. Globalive has vowed to offer cheaper services, presenting itself as the alternative for Canadian subscribers fed up with the established players.

In rare public hearings held last month at the behest of the incumbent carriers, CRTC chairman Konrad von Finckenstein seemed inclined to side with the them, blasting Globalive for tabling a proposal on its ownership structure that virtually split decision-making powers with the Middle East operator. The chairman also criticized certain rights Orascom held in connection with the US$508-million in loans the firm has already extended to Globalive.

In response, the startup carrier agreed to reshuffle and enlarge its Canadian board representation and amend its agreements with Orascom to give Globalive clearer operational control.

The commission ruled on Thursday that the amendments did not go far enough to bring Globalive in line, in part because Orascom, which holds a 65% overall equity interest mostly through non-voting shares, still held too much economic control.

"In circumstances such as the present, where a company is heavily debt financed, this opportunity can translate into significant influence," the CRTC found.

During last month's proceedings, Globalive's chairman Anthony Lacavera (left, photo above) as well as the head of Orascom, Naguib Sawiris, said their original plan did not call for a massive injection of capital solely from the foreign carrier.

However, the financial crisis that turned capital markets into a desert last year -- after Globalive had already committed $442-million to acquire airwave licenses from Ottawa -- required Orascom to extend almost complete start-up financing.

Mr. Lacavera said Globalive planned to pay back the loans or have institutional investors take portions when the firm was beginning to generate cash and could demonstrate its viability.

Yet the commission rebuffed that promise on Thursday, stating it "has no authority to issue a conditional approval on the basis that the carrier undertakes to bring itself into compliance in the future."

In a recent interview with the Financial Post, Mr. Lacavera said he attempted to find other sources of money but was turned down by domestic and international financial institutions. "This was the only way to do it, I believe. We looked inside Canada," he said. "Banks don't lend money easily into companies like this."

Most observers agree that a decision in favour of the would-be cellphone startup would have established a new precedent that undermined Canada's foreign-ownership rules for the telecom sector, which are designed to prevent international giants from overrunning the domestic market.

"The CRTC really had no choice," said Ken Engelhart, senior vice-president of regulatory affairs for Rogers, the country's biggest cellphone provider. "The facts in this case were just so overwhelmingly pointing to control by Orascom. I don't think the commission could have done anything else."

Two other wireless startups, DAVE Wireless and Public Mobile plan to launch within months after acquiring licenses of their own, but both lack the backing of a global wireless heavyweight.

The CRTC ruling flies in the face of an approval from Industry Canada in March that determined Globalive was Canadian-owned and controlled.

For its part, Globalive, which has hired more than 500 employees since last year and is rolling out its network now, said on Thursday it was determining its course of action, which could include returning to the commission with another proposal.

The decision must also come as a personal shock to Mr. Lacavera.

"I'm very confident we'll get a favourable ruling. We've fully cooperated and fully complied with all their concerns and made all the changes they've raised," he said last week.

"For us, it's about getting into the market."

Financial Post

jasturgeon@nationalpost.com

Tuesday, October 06, 2009

Telecom: Bell poised to begin offering iPhone

By J. Sturgeon | Financial Post | 10.05. 2009

Bell Canada has cleared the way to begin offering the vaunted iPhone, announcing yesterday it has completed a long-awaited overhaul of its wireless network that will enable the carrier to support perhaps the most iconic handset in the history of the cellphone and smash the de facto exclusivity chief rival Rogers Communications Inc. has held over the device.

For years, both BCE Inc.' s Bell Canada and Telus Corp., the nation's second-and third-largest cellphone companies, respectively, have trailed Rogers, largely because of network superiority. Since its acquisition of Microcell in 2004, Rogers has used next-generation gear called high-speed packet access (HSPA), while the other two relied on CDMA, or code-division multiple access.

A primary advantage of HSPA is the favour it has gained with handset makers as it has overtaken CDMA technology with cellphone carriers around the globe.

Among the HSPA users is Cupertino, Calif.-based Apple Inc., which designed its smash-hit iPhone expressly for HSPA networks.

Having the the only compatible network in Canada, Rogers has been able to offer the iPhone while Bell and Telus watched from the sidelines.

That competitive handicap was dissolved yesterday as Bell announced it has completed a year-long transition to HSPA and will introduce service next month. "The new network will be ready to roll in November, quickly notching up competition and wireless choice for consumers and businesses across the country," said George Cope, chief executive of Bell.

In an interview, Wade Oosterman, president of Bell Mobility would not confirm whether Bell and Apple were in talks to bring the iPhone to Bell in light of the move, but said he anticipated making a new handset announcement soon. Sources suggested both Bell and Telus, which declined to comment on when it would introduce its HSPA upgrade, were close to securing a deal with Apple.

Bell's move, made months ahead of schedule, comes as Bell, Telus and Rogers brace for the arrival of new entrants analysts predict will steal market share from all three.

Three new players in Globalive Wireless, Public Mobile and DAVE Wireless are expected to launch services in major markets this year or early next year. Globalive, which is undergoing a review of its ownership structure by Canadian regulators, has vowed to launch in Toronto and Calgary before the year is out.

"[With] the coming arrival of new wireless brands and networks, Bell will be ready to compete," the Montreal-based company said.

The iPhone, like other smart-phones such as the BlackBerry, nets higher monthly revenue per user on average versus traditional cellphones that do not offer the same level of Web services and cannot be charged higher data fees, although analysts aren't sold yet on whether the hefty upfront subsidies carriers pay for the iPhone are worth it for them.

Both Bell and Telus announced last fall they had begun pouring millions into the network transition ahead of the 201 0 Olympic Games in Vancouver, which will see tourists from around the world converge on B.C., netting the companies lucrative revenues from international roaming fees.

Bell also recently announced an agreement with U.S. giant AT&T that will lock up roaming payments from U.S. customers travelling within Canada.

The earlier rollout will see Bell widen its handset offering for the holiday season as all three incumbents face pressure to capture as many customers as they can ahead of the market shakeup.

The move, which overlays HSPA gear on Bell's existing network, also means Bell can offer devices for both network standards. Bell is already the exclusive carrier of the Pre. Made by Palm, the CDMA-only handset is considered a chief rival to the iPhone.

Monday, August 10, 2009

Telecom: Mike Z steps down, says Nortel 'stabilizing'

J. Sturgeon | Financial Post | Aug. 11, 2009

In November 2005, he was hired by Nortel Networks Corp. to open a new chapter for the struggling telecommunications firm. Almost four years later, Mike Zafirovski has left Nortel as it moves through what most say is its last.

Monday, Mr. Zafirovski stepped down as chief executive of the bankrupt firm, as did most of Nortel's board of directors.

The decision, which comes as the Toronto-based company is in the process of selling off all of its business operations, was jointly made by Mr. Zafirovski, Nortel's bankruptcy monitor Ernst & Young Inc. and the company's creditor committee.

In an interview, the 55-year-old executive said the decision to go was made because the company, while still losing considerable amounts of money, was "stabilizing" now and that it was in the best interest of all for him and certain board members to step aside.

Nortel's two largest business units have or are on the verge of being acquired by rivals while Nortel is in advanced talks to sell its remaining units. The moves put the company's employees and technological legacy on a secure and "promising path," he said.

The announcement coincided with the release of Nortel's second-quarter results, which showed the company lost US$274-million during Mr. Zafirovski's final three months at the helm, more than double the loss from the same quarter a year ago. Revenue declined 25% to US$1.97-billion.

However, revenue did increase 14% quarter over quarter, indicating some customers are gaining more confidence that the company will honour future contract obligations - or at least whatever company acquires its businesses will.

Mr. Zafirovski said in June that Nortel would sell all its divisions through so-called "stalking horse" auctions as it tries to pay back creditors. The court-supervised sales are designed to set a floor price on the assets and encourage rival bids.

Last month, the company sold its major wireless business, which makes network equipment for mobile-phone carriers, to Sweden's Ericsson for US$1.13-billion. That bid trumped a US$650-million offer from fellow European giant Nokia Siemens Networks. Avaya Inc. has placed an initial US$475-million bid for the Enterprise unit, Nortel's second biggest by revenues, which develops networks for large corporations. An auction is slated for early next month.

"Frankly, we've done a pretty significant job of stabilizing the company, producing good results and increased the interest in our businesses from buyers," Mr. Zafirovski said of Nortel's performance since its bankruptcy filing on Jan. 14.

The 127-year-old company was forced to seek bankruptcy protection after its turnaround plans were sideswiped by the economic downturn last year, Mr. Zafirovski said.

"We were there in the middle of 2008," he said adding that he and other senior managers worked tirelessly to overcome the accounting scandals and related legal woes with investors that had plagued the firm since before his arrival.

He said he expected growth in most of the company's markets last year until the recession hit, leading to double-digit declines in sales across the telecommunications industry.

"We certainly did not have the flexibility to withstand that," he said.

More than a dozen appeals to the federal government made between October and January were rebuffed, Mr. Zafirovski said, as lawmakers were not convinced a bailout would save the firm. "I feel it's something the government should have done," he said. "I understand why it wasn't, but certainly we believe we provided a compelling case."

Alongside Mr. Zafirovski, five directors left the company yesterday. Chairman Harry Pearce as well as John Manley, James Hunt, Richard McCormick and Claude Mongeau stepped down.

Pavi Binning, Nortel's chief restructuring and financial officer will remain to manage operations for the time being. Nortel is also seeking a greater role for Ernst & Young, its court-appointed monitor, in its restructuring activities.

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Tuesday, August 04, 2009

Telecom: Ericsson poised for supremacy in North America

By J. Sturgeon | Financial Post | Aug. 01, 2009

The sun had set on the Statue of Liberty hours before on Friday, July 24, harkening the arrival of another summer weekend in New York City. Far above the din of the streets, executives from Telefon AB LM Ericsson and Nokia Siemens Networks BV, two of the world's biggest telecommunications firms, remained hard at work.

"We had Nokia Siemens sitting on one side of the table and Ericsson on the other," James Bromley, Nortel Network Corp.'s lead U.S. attorney, told a Delaware court this week. Representatives of the two international tech giants had been huddled since the morning around the U-shaped boardroom table on the 39th-floor offices of Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP, in the heart of Manhattan's financial district. They were bidding at a live auction for the most coveted assets bankrupt Nortel Networks had up for sale.

Shortly before midnight, Ericsson emerged the victor with a bid of US$1.13-billion. Mr. Bromley called the court-supervised sale a "milestone transaction." And for Ericsson it was. The Swedish teleco's prize was Nortel's vaunted wireless assets - the very technology powering the tens of thousands cellphone calls, text messages and mobile tweets being made by New Yorkers on the streets below.

The sale, which will close on Sept. 30 barring any regulatory hurdles, will help transform Ericsson into a mobile network behemoth in North America, giving it the technology it needs to sign lucrative contracts with Canadian and U.S. carriers for years to come.

It caps a remarkable string of deals by Ericsson since February that has made North America the company's most important.

"Being able to acquire this part of Nortel gives a very well-rounded base to tackle the business that we already have, plus a lot of the new business that we're going to have," Angel Ruiz, head of Ericsson North America, said in an interview. "It positions us very well."

North American operations will represent upward of 20% of the company's business worldwide after the deal closes, making it far and away its most valuable region. "With the added market share this brings to the table with customers like Verizon and Bell and Telus and US Cellular and a number of Tier-2 carriers, it's going to go from a US$2-billion business to perhaps over a US$5-billion business [annually]," the executive said.

The completion of the Nortel sale will finish off a troika of deals that have catapulted the company to a market-leading position in a North American market readying itself for a massive upgrade cycle.

In February, Ericsson won the contract to become the principal supplier of U.S. giant Verizon Wireless's build-out of its next-generation network. That was followed by a seven-year, US$5-billion deal to manage the networks of Sprint Nextel Corp., another major U.S. operator.

The transactions will leave Ericsson with more than 14,000 employees in North America, including 2,700 in Canada spread between offices in Vancouver and Toronto, where its Canadian operations are headquartered, as well as a sizeable research facility in Montreal. The acquisition will also hand to Ericsson Nortel's highly regarded research labs in Ottawa.

It's no surprise the sudden and formidable rise has left many wondering where Ericsson has come from.

The history of the company in many respects mirrors Nortel's, once a chief rival. Founded in 1876 in Stockholm, Ericsson spent much of the past century developing and selling phone equipment and systems, fuelled in part by the same nationalistic patronage from the Swedish government that Nortel enjoyed from Ottawa through contracts and generous tax incentives.

"They've been around for a very long time," says Douglas Reid, professor of international corporate strategy at Queen's University's School of Business and an expert on the telecommunications industry.

The company has held a presence in Canada for decades, as well, opening its first offices here in 1953. Ericsson is also a considerable investor in Canadian R&D, spending more than $2-billion over the past 10 years - more than $126-million in 2008 alone - primarily through its labs in Montreal, which represent the company's second-biggest facilities in the world.

Mr. Ruiz said the political furor that has erupted in recent weeks over the Nortel sale has come as a bit of shock to the company. "Considering our history," he says," I'm a bit surprised at some of the comments and perception."

Dwight Duncan, the Minister of Finance for Ontario, for example, has called for the sale to be stopped on grounds that it constitutes a national security concern and could spell the end of some high-tech jobs. The federal Liberals have also implored Industry Minister Tony Clement to conduct an in-depth review of the transaction to see if it violates foreign-ownership provisions in the Investment Canada Act.

Echoing what Ericsson's incoming CEO Hans Vestberg said this week, Mr. Ruiz said the company has no plans to scale back Nortel's Ottawa operations for the time being. "We have always touted our R&D presence in Canada, and that will continue to be very, very strong," he said.

The two product lines that comprise Nortel's wireless unit are CDMA networks, a technology still widely deployed by North American carriers, but which is undergoing a gradual decline here and around the world, and so-called long-term evolution or LTE systems, the ultra-fast technology now gaining ascendance with carriers and the gear that will most likely power the next generation of wireless networks.

In LTE, the 500 or so researchers that work at Nortel's Ottawa labs are resources that Ericsson will want to retain, and indeed grow, as the race toward the commercial deployment of the new technology gathers pace through 2010 and beyond, Prof. Reid said.

"The people will likely remain," he said, adding that "meaningful and important telecom work here will still be done."

The only difference? "They'll be doing it under the Ericsson flag not the Nortel."

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Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Ericsson confident of Nortel sale, but braced for hurdles

Jamie Sturgeon | Financial Post | July 28, 2009

Swedish telecommunications giant Ericsson said Monday it was confident that its acquisition of Nortel Networks Corp.'s wireless business would be approved by bankruptcy courts as well as Canadian and U.S. regulators, but acknowledged that hurdles remain.

Primarily, Hans Vestberg, chief financial officer of Ericsson noted Canadian technology giant Research In Motion Ltd.'s attempts to interfere with the sale, including urging federal authorities, which still must approve the deal, to intervene.

"We feel confident that this will go through but we have a lot of respect for the process that will come," Mr. Vestberg said on a conference call. "There are some regulatory issues left to be defined."

Ericsson won a three-way auction for most of bankrupt Nortel's wireless assets early Saturday, agreeing to pay US$1.13-billion for the Toronto-based company's technology and certain patents related to CDMA and LTE wireless network technologies.

The unit, Nortel's biggest by revenue, makes and develops CDMA networks used by many major mobile-phone carriers including Bell Mobility and Telus Corp., as well as next-generation Long-Term Evolution, or LTE networks.

Led by North American carriers, LTE, which will be able to deliver data at high speeds to mobile devices even more sophisticated than today's smart phones such as Apple Inc.'s iPhone or RIM's BlackBerry, is poised to become the global standard over the next several years.

Ericsson outbid European telecom rival Nokia Siemens Networks, as well as U.S. private equity firm MatlinPatterson Global Advisers LLC.

Waterloo, Ont.-based RIM has expressed interest in the assets, saying last week it would have bid as much as US$1.1-billion for them, but said it was blocked by Nortel from participating in the auction.

In a statement released late Sunday, RIM said it remained interested in pursuing certain assets, and urged Canadian authorities to review the sale, which would see Nortel's extensive technological base fall to a foreign firm.

"The government has the authority and responsibility to get involved to protect vital Canadian interests," the company said.

Tony Clement, the federal Industry Minister, has said it was his preference to see Nortel's technology remain in Canada, but has so far declined to step into the sale process.

Nortel will bring a request to have the sale approved by bankruptcy courts in the U.S. and Canada on Tuesday. The deal will also be subject to further regulatory approval.

Mr. Vestberg said Ericsson expects the deal to close late in the third quarter and have the business fully integrated by the fourth.

He said that while there were synergies to be found between its existing North American operations and the new assets, Ericsson planned to keep Nortel's wireless operations in Dallas and Ottawa unchanged for the time being.

The unit employs about 2,500 people, with about 800 workers based in Canada, primarily in Ottawa, Nortel's historical research and development hub.

Nortel, an icon of Canada's technology sector for more than a century, filed for bankruptcy protection in January, citing the recession for thwarting a turnaround plan begun in 2005 with the appointment of Mike Zafirovski, the company's current chief executive.

The company, which has its shares delisted from the Toronto Stock Exchange on June 26, is in the process of selling off its major business lines.

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Tuesday, June 16, 2009

'Real value' for execs taking up social media

Exclusive online communities like INmobile.org gaining traction with those who are connected

By Jamie Sturgeon | June, 20, 2009

Matthew Corbett was travelling home to Boston from New York in 2005 when the idea struck.

The long-time executive headhunter for the wireless industry had finished reading The Wisdom of Crowds, a new book by New Yorker columnist James Surowiecki that was capturing the imagination of many at the time, Mr. Corbett included.

What if the book's thesis — that aggregated group knowledge was more accurate than individual — could be brought to bear on the top minds of global telecommunications, he thought.

"Wouldn't it be amazing if we could capture the collective intelligence inside this community?" he asks almost five years later. Within a year, he launched INMobile.org, an exclusive online social-media site that has been nurturing the concept ever since.

Starting out with about 200 carefully screened members, INmobile membership has grown by more than ten fold. Mr. Corbett says the site is subscribed to by the chief executives of some of the world's fastest growing digital startups and tier-one carriers and handset makers.

INmobile is not alone in providing a platform for business leaders and corporate influencers. There is a growing number of exclusive, velvet-roped sites that are facilitating deals and advancing ideas. Groups like A Small World and Decayenne boast memberships of several thousand of the world's most successful entrepreneurs and business leaders.

In short, social media is gaining credibility with those above the din of Facebook, MySpace and Twitter.

As an example, Mr. Corbett points toward a discussion unfolding on INmobile right now on the rise of Web-equipped smartphones that is being moderated by a former senior vice-president of marketing for Finnish wireless giant Nokia, still the No.1 maker of the devices globally.

"Social networks are of value to senior executives as well as teenagers," Mr. Corbett says. "The fundamental values are still important; they get access to their peer group; they still want to appear smart in their peer group and they still want to give and take information."

"There's real value in that," says Kenneth Hardy, professor of marketing at the Richard Ivey School of Business at the University of Western Ontario. "You get value when you get people at similar levels somewhere where they can share the good stuff — the real stories — in trust."

Yet INmobile is more than a platform for broad discussion, Mr. Corbett says — INmobile is producing what he calls "genuine predictive data" on the direction that the wireless industry is heading in.

The organization just wrapped up its first surveying exercise that asked 100 hand-picked senior executives from Canada and the U.S. what industries will be most affected by the shift to mobile Internet now taking place.

"When you talk to a hundred experts, and 60 per cent of them say one thing, the likelihood of that happening is so high," Mr. Corbett says. He plans to conduct a similar exercise with European executives this year, marry the two sets of data and release it to industry players for free.

The largesses may not last long though, Mr. Corbett says. "You come back to me in six months and I might say there is a business there."

Real value, indeed.

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Thursday, June 04, 2009

New direction for Rogers: slow and steady, new CEO says

By Jamie Sturgeon | Financial Post | 05. 30. 2009

It's a not an easy position to be in, but it is an enviable one. Nadir Mohamed was elevated to the corner office of Rogers Communications Inc., the largest wireless and cable company in Canada, in March. His job since has been to keep it there.

The challenges are tall for the new chief executive, who succeeded company figurehead and founder, Ted Rogers after his passing in early December.

They loom largest in wireless, a division that has become a formidable earnings engine, but is now threatened by structural shifts taking place across the industry. To start, he must maintain Rogers' edge over national rivals Bell Canada and Telus Corp., who are quickly catching up in a range of areas.

He must also guard the company's current share of the wireless-subscriber pie from new entrants eager to syphon off customers looking for better products and services for less money. All the while, he must ensure Rogers' other lines of business in cable and media remain profitable.

Most importantly, though, the 52-year-old telecom veteran must ready the company -- and shareholder expectations -- for a period of slower growth.

"The world is changing," Mr. Mohamed said in an interview. "How we won the last five years is going to be different from how we win going forward."

For more than half a decade, Rogers has been the unequivocal market leader in pushing consumer adoption for wireless and cable services. It has become No. 1 because it has built out the most advanced networks and offered the latest devices. But now, the company is at risk of being a victim of its own success as nearly seven in 10 Canadians own a mobile phone and about the same amount subscribe to digital or cable TV.

The company has reached an inflection point, Mr. Mohamed says. To be sure, there's room to grow, just not as quickly.

"No question that when I look ahead toward the next five years, growth is going to be much more modest."

Gone are the days of debt-leveraged blistering growth. Protecting market share, returning value to shareholders and a keen eye on controlling costs are Mr. Mohamed's intentions. In short, they're the hallmarks of a company that is maturing.

The new direction Mr. Mohamed is taking has already been felt. The company nearly doubled its quarterly dividend to 58¢ last quarter. More telling was the ballooning of the company's share-buyback program to $1.5-billion -- or about 10% of common stock -- from an initial $300-million, announced this month.

"The move toward a share buyback has been very positive. They're saying we want to return value to stockholders," said Dvai Ghose, equity analyst at Genuity Capital Markets.

"The problem with being a mature company is that you tend to be fat and lazy. What the company has to do is show it hasn't lost that entrepreneurial spirit. It's a delicate balance."

Despite commanding the biggest share of wireless and cable subscriptions in the country, Rogers can hardly afford to grow complacent now. Alongside slowing penetration among consumers, there is increasing competition to pick up the slack, most pressingly in wireless.

Revenue in the unit, which accounted for over half of $11-billion Rogers took in last year, faces new pressure on multiple fronts.

Declining prices on voice plans from discount brands is driving down average revenue per subscriber for all three major wireless operators. Rogers, Telus and Bell all operate their own so-called "flanker" brands in Fido, Koodo, Solo and Virgin.

The larger threat, however, comes from a clutch of soon-to-be rivals in Globalive Communications, DAVE Wireless and Public Mobile who are readying to launch later this year or early next with widely anticipated cheaper plans.

"That's going to create pressure, no doubt," Mr. Mohamed said. "But there really are two games being played out. At the higher end is the core of what we're trying to do at Rogers."

With limited network capacity, the smaller entrants will likely be focused on voice and text plans, analysts say.

Rogers is aiming for the much more lucrative data-heavy users, which represent the future of the industry, the CEO says. "It's all about mobile Internet and data, the iPhone and BlackBerry and now Android."

Mr. Mohamed must also keep an eye on what the other incumbents have planned. Both Bell Canada and Telus are introducing new networks early next year that will rival Rogers' own. The rollout will enable the two to offer advanced devices such as Apple Inc.'s iPhone or the HTC Dream and Magic powered by Google Inc.'s vaunted Android platform. Rogers is the exclusive carrier of the iPhone currently and is introducing the Google handsets this week.

"The question is, who has the best network quality in terms of reliability and speed? I think it will be a while before the others get there," he said "And we're not sitting still either."

Investment in network technology will remain a chief concern. However, as growth slows the focus will be on retaining customers, Mr. Mohamed said. Long derided for its inattention to customer service and opaque billing structure, the new CEO said yesterday Rogers is investing heavily in a new integrated system subscribers will clearly understand.

"We think the next battle will be fought closer to the customer," he said. "The network is our strength and we'll continue to build on that. But there is a layer on top of that, which is the interaction with the customer."

For a slowing company, that will be crucial if it hopes to continue to win.

jasturgeon@nationalpost.com

Monday, May 25, 2009

Feature: Nortel employees caught in tax trap


By J. Sturgeon | Financial Post | 05. 25. 2009

Richard Smith gave the biggest part of his working life to Nortel Networks Corp.' s telecommunications services unit.

As division director, he witnessed and contributed to the Canadian technology company's rapid growth into a global titan in the 1980s and 1990s. Like other employees of the firm, which filed for bankruptcy protection in January, Mr. Smith was compensated in part with company-granted options on stock.

For many, it was a dream. They exercised their options and sold the shares for a handsome profit at the height of the dot-com boom, when Nortel was the toast of the Toronto Stock Exchange with a share price well above $100.

Yet for an untold number, emotional turmoil has been their only return, and now, as the enervated telecom firm faces a possible dissolution, those optioned shares threaten them with financial ruin.

The reason is a little-known amendment to federal income-tax laws made at the beginning of the decade on options allotted as part of employees' pay that allows for a tax deferral on optioned stock until it is disposed of.

The effect has left current and former Nortel workers such as Mr. Smith saddled with colossal tax liabilities on paper profit they never realized.

"It's been a nightmare," says Mr. Smith, who's name has been changed at his request. "I have to come up with $200,000."

The 68-year-old retiree's ordeal began in the mid-1990s when he was awarded the right to purchase Nortel shares at a discount set by the company.

Times were never better for Nortel. It was selling fibre-optic cable and other network components in spades as the Internet mania was in full flight. The stock was soaring, eventually inflating to occupy a full third of the market value of the entire Toronto exchange.

Mr. Smith retired in 1999 with options on about 13,000 shares, which he exercised in the fall of 2000. He spent about $90,000 of his savings to acquire shares worth $900,000. He could have sold, paid his tax obligation on the profit and still had enough to live in relative comfort for the rest of his life.

But he didn't.

Instead, he thought the stock would go higher still, so he held on. He also deferred the taxes owed to the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA), which were assessed at the time he optioned.

The deferral amendment had just been written into the Income Tax Act through that spring's federal budget. Wary of losing top tech talent (among other sectors) to U. S. companies then offering lucrative stock-option plans, Canadian legislators passed measures allowing for the payment delay on exercised options until the point of disposal.

What was not amended was when the tax assessment is made, which remained -- and still does -- at the point of exercise.

"It created a tax risk," says Ken Snider, a senior tax lawyer at Toronto-based Cassels, Brock & Blackwell LLP. Like a capital gain on an investment, taxes charged on optioned shares are punishing. The CRA applies the same policy it does on capital gains to shares awarded through options to employees -- 50% of the profits at the individual's tax rate.

What no one seemingly saw at the time was a scenario in which a stock collapses, obliterating employees' equity stakes while leaving them with a tax burden from an assessment made when a company's share price was through the roof.

"That is the trap," Mr. Snider says. "If the value of the shares dropped significantly, the proceeds of the sale would be insufficient to pay the tax liability."

Mr. Smith assumed his shares at $104 apiece. After nearly a decade of watching with dread as Nortel's stock price crumbled, his shares are now worth about 2¢ each, accounting for reverse stock splits. His tax liability is about $204,000, he says.

"This is my all-encompassing issue. It's been nine years and it's grinding me down."

Nortel, which declined comment for this story, filed for creditor protection on Jan. 14, succumbing after years of distracting accounting scandals and poor operating results. The filing has bought Nortel -- still North America's largest telecom-equipment maker -- time to restructure into a viable company.

That is clearly the most agreeable outcome for Mr. Smith and others in his position. If Nortel survives, he'll simply keep his shares and defer the tax perpetually.

Failing that lies some "horrific" scenarios. If Nortel sells itself, the acquirer could take it private, cancelling the public float and trigger his tax liability. If Nortel cannot find a suitor, liquidates and ceases to exist as a corporation, the tax will again come due.

The financial recourse for Mr. Smith, who lives with his wife on a $30,000 annual pension (which is also at risk because of Nortel's misfortunes) and old-age security, is to sell his home or empty out his retirement savings.

Nortel employees are not alone. A group called Canadians For Equitable Taxation (CFET) estimates thousands of Canadians share Mr. Smith's misfortune. Many are unwilling to come forward out of embarassment or fear they'll draw the eye of the CRA, says Gary Hawe, a spokesman.

In a rare instance that cast light on the issue, 35 former Canadian employees of California tech giant JDS Uniphase Corp. received a federal reprieve or "remission order" on their obligations in 2006 after lobbying their local Member of Parliament, Gary Lunn, then the natural resources minister.

Since then, awareness has grown. In late April, CFET, a group of several hundred, met with the federal finance committee to ask for a change to the rules. How far did discussions go? In short, nowhere.

The CRA argued its bound to administer the law so long as it is in place, says committee member John McKay, Liberal MP for Scarborough-Guildwood. Meanwhile, Jim Flaherty, the Minister of Finance, is "refusing to take on the issue."

Each side is "blaming the other for this problem and in between the crossfire there are a lot of dead taxpayers," Mr. McKay says.

Mr. McKay says the rules have created unintended consequences and need to be corrected. "It is an anomaly and it's wrong. You shouldn't tax people on phantom income."

"The best thing that could happen to me," Mr. Smith says, "is that the shares remain worthless and that's it. Then I can sleep at night."

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Wednesday, March 25, 2009

News: Courts OK US$7.3M in Nortel bonus payments

By J. Sturgeon | Financial Post | 03. 21. 2009

Nortel Networks Corp. has won approval to pay senior executives millions in retention bonuses as part of a plan to keep key personnel from fleeing the company as it undergoes court-protected restructuring. However, a legal battle is looming.

Courts in Canada and the United States granted the company the right to pay a combined US$7.3-million to top-level managers yesterday --even as thousands of former employees are being denied severance payments.

"You need to keep the good people to make sure this restructuring is successful in order to preserve as many jobs as you can and in order to preserve as much value as you can in this enterprise," said Derrick Tay, Nortel's chief counsel, during a break in proceedings at the Ontario Superior Court of Justice in Toronto.

In total, three unnamed executives in Canada and five in the United States will share in the bonus pool.

Another 26 employees in Canada were approved earlier this month to receive a portion of a US$23-million program designed to retain 92 senior managers across the globe.

The identities of the eight executives were filed in confidential court materials but not made public for competitive reasons, said Mr. Tay.

"If you disclose that information, it's very easy for competitors to come along and say, 'Well, you're getting X dollars, I'll give you X plus Y.' You're drawing a road map for competitors to come pick your key people."

It is thought that Mike Zafirovski, chief executive, is not among the senior leadership being awarded bonuses.

About 880 additional staff could also be paid US$22-million in bonus payments while Nortel restructures.

Faced with mounting debt and dwindling revenue, Nortel-- once the largest telecommunications-equipment maker in North America--filed for creditor protection in January. The Toronto-based company, which has lost at least US$6-billion since Mr. Zafirovski took over in 2005, is labouring under a complex restructuring plan that will have eliminated a total of 5,000 employees by year-end.

Yesterday's ruling in Canada was objected to by a group of about 60 former employees who have been denied severance pay since Nortel entered bankruptcy protection.

"[Nortel] is saying they can't pay because they don't have the money and the creditors would never allow it, but yet they seem to find enough money to pay some other group of employees about US$45-million," Eli Karp, the lawyer representing the group, said in an interview. "That's our grievance."

Mr. Karp, who works for Toronto-based Juroviesky & Ricci LLP, said the number of former employees joining the 60 or so he represents is growing "daily."

Mr. Karp plans to appeal to the Canadian court on April 20 for a representation order granting the right to represent the estimated 1,100 former employees in Canada that are owed about $100-million, or about $90,900 each, in unpaid severance from the company.

"Ultimately we hope to achieve that our [clients] get 100 cents on the dollar of what they're owed," he said.

The company reported at the end of 2008 that it had more than US$2-billion in cash on hand but said in January's filing the funds were needed to continue operations during its restructuring.

The timing of the latest developments could hardly be worse for Nortel.

Public and political outrage has greeted a scheme in recent weeks at beleaguered U. S. insurer American International Group Inc., which agreed to pay US$165-million in bonuses to the very executives blamed for financially crippling the company.

Nortel said yesterday that the "vast majority" of its remaining employees are on some kind of quarterly incentive plan "aligned to the short-term goals" of the company.

Reached for comment regarding the negative public sentiment that could threaten to engulf the company, spokesman Mohammed Nakhooda said, "It is critical we move through the restructuring process and all of its elements as quickly as possible."



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Sunday, March 15, 2009

News: No need for wage cuts, CAW says

J. Sturgeon | Financial Post | 03. 06. 2009

Auditors of General Motors Corp. say North America's largest automaker may be forced to seek bankruptcy protection as it fights for financial survival, raising the odds that workers in Canada will be compelled to accept reduced wages and substantial clawbacks to legacy benefits.

If the Canadian Auto Workers union does not agree to concessions, it could spell the end of GM manufacturing in Canada, experts say.

The auditors' warning, filed in GM's annual report last week but acknowledged by the company yesterday, also raised concern among federal and provincial lawmakers over the "sustainability" of the U. S. automaker -- and the billions in Canadian taxpayer-backed loans being extended to it.

Part of GM's path toward returning to profitability lies in labour-cost reductions both in Canada and the United States. Union officials for the CAW began yesterday the unenviable task of renegotiating a collective bargaining agreement for the roughly 10,000 workers the automaker employs here.

"The auto workers are in a desperate situation going in," said Dennis DesRosiers, a senior Canadian auto analyst and president of DesRosiers Automotive Consultants Inc. in Richmond Hill.

CAW officials said they have reviewed a tentative agreement that union workers in the United States have reached with the company and plan to amend the Canadian union's terms to maintain the same level of investment and production that GM dedicates to Canada now, which is about 20% of North American operations.

GM's mounting losses, a negative net worth and massive cash-burn rate may mean the Canadian union will have to absorb heavy concessions in the coming days just to keep the automaker in Canada, Mr. DesRosiers said.

"[The CAW would] be fortunate to get a term sheet that says, 'Here's what it is going to take for us to stay in Canada, take it or leave it.' "

Ken Lewenza, the CAW president, told reporters in Toronto yesterday the terms reached between GM and the United Auto Workers, the U. S. union, did not cut wages or "core" benefits. There is no reason why the CAW could not draft a similar agreement, he said. "We believe we can maintain our existing wage and benefits package."

New bargaining agreements with workers in Canada and the United States may be for naught, though, if North American lawmakers lose faith in GM's ability to revive its fortunes. Yesterday, the grim auditor assessment created fresh uncertainty among lawmakers whether taxpayer money should go toward a company that may well fail anyway.

Ontario's minister responsible for the auto sector acknowledged there is the possibility that money from the province may not be forthcoming.

"If it is not a viable company, we will not make a deal," said Michael Bryant, Ontario's Economic Development Minister, which is partnering with Ottawa in providing potential financial aid to the Detroit automakers. "If it is a company that doesn't have a profitable future, haven't addressed their legacy costs, don't have a business plan that makes sense to us, we will not make that investment -- because it would be a bad investment."

Speaking from Washington where he is consulting with U. S. officials, Jim Flaherty, the federal Minister of Finance, reiterated in a television interview that "viable" plans must be demonstrated by GM and Chrysler if loan support is to remain in place. That includes potential wage concessions and benefit clawbacks, the Minister said.

"There are the costs of labour, the overall costs of benefit packages -- are they competitive between the Detroit Three and the other automobile companies in Canada?" Mr. Flaherty said. "Those are some of the variables that need to be looked at in order to come to some sensible determination on the sustain-ability of these enterprises."

GM reported a US$30.9-billion loss in its 2008 annual report, which also contained an auditor assessment that stated "substantial doubt" existed that the automaker could make good on certain looming debt payments, forcing it into bankruptcy protection.

GM said yesterday it has received waivers from its lenders to have loan recalls deferred.

A spokesperson for GM told The Wall Street Journal GM's main concern at present was attaining the lender waivers, which will buy more time for the company to restructure.


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Saturday, March 14, 2009

News: Jobs drought hits Ontario and Alberta

By J. Sturgeon | Financial Post | 03. 14. 2009

Once considered Canada's twin economic engines, Ontario and Alberta continued to lose steam in February, taking the lion's share of job losses and led by a notable decline in construction employment.

The Canadian economy shed a worse-than-expected 82,600 jobs last month, with more than half coming from Ontario, where the construction sector replaced manufacturing as the main industry to be sideswiped by a deepening U. S. recession.

Last month's reading pushed the province's unemployment rate to 8.7%, a full percentage point over the current national jobless rate and the highest level since April, 1997.

"There's no question that Ontario is bearing the brunt of the weakness," said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, in an interview.

About 28,000 construction jobs were purged from payrolls as housing starts continued to moderate in Ontario amid slumping real-estate demand.

"February finally saw building activity catch up with labour-market realities," said Meny Grauman, senior economist at CIBC World Markets.

Other sectors felt the bite as well, with finance, insurance and real estate combining to shed 19,000 jobs.

In contrast, manufacturers -- the source of much of the blood-letting in recent months --added 14,000 positions.

The additions were a surprising development given the grim export environment for goods bound for a recession-plagued United States. However, it was "literally a dead-cat bounce," said Mr. Porter, given "the steep drop in U. S. auto sales and the massive decline in auto production and other manufacturing sectors around the turn of the year."

February's purge mirrors Ontario's experience since Canada's labour market first began to buckle last October. The province has now absorbed just over half of the country's total job losses in the period, or 160,000 positions.

"That's one interesting feature of this report -- just how far Ontario's unemployment rate has risen above the national average," Mr. Porter said. "It's unheard of."

In particular, Mr. Porter noted that Ontario's unemployment rate remained higher than Quebec's for the second month in a row.

Ontario's unemployment rate eclipsed Quebec's for the first time on record in January.

"This is an important development," he said. "It really plays up how much Ontario's economy has suffered in the past year, in particular as manufacturing has struggled."

Since October, Ontario's unemployment rate has risen two full percentage points, with increases concentrated in southwestern Ontario, where the Canadian auto industry is centred, said CIBC's Mr. Grauman.

Unemployment in Quebec edged up 0.2 percentage points in February to 7.9% as 18,000 jobs were lost, led by 11,000 health-care positions.

"Ontario getting above Quebec is unusual in its own right and to be that much above speaks volumes," Mr. Porter said.

Yet the most-populous province in the country wasn't alone, as plunging commodity prices finally spilled over into the construction and manufacturing sectors of Alberta, resulting in a steep rise in unemployment in that province.

"We are seeing job losses move out [west]," Mr. Grauman said. Alberta shed 24,000 jobs last month, pushing the unemployment rate to 5.4%.

Oil's plunge has chilled construction in the oil sands as well as Alberta's once-torrid housing market, eliminating 9,000 construction jobs in February. Another 10,000 jobs were lost in the province's manufacturing sector. The remaining 13,000 were culled from the education sector.

Alberta unemployment now sits at its highest level in six years. As commodity prices remain depressed, the province is expected to lose more jobs in the months ahead, Mr. Grauman said.

"The weakness in the labour market started later there but it's definitely going to continue."

jasturgeon@nationalpost.com

Sunday, February 22, 2009

Magna Entertainment's race may be run

By J. Sturgeon | Financial Post | Feb. 19

Frank Stronach's debt-plagued Magna Entertainment Corp. appears on the verge of financial collapse after the money-losing horse racetrack business said it may not be able to repay looming obligations, adding to the Canadian entrepreneur's woes as his car-parts company struggles to weather the crisis hammering the auto industry.

The Toronto Stock Exchange placed MEC under review on Thursday for a possible delisting on an "expedited basis" signalling the company is at or nearing insolvency, according to the bourse's listing rules.

The review comes in the wake of a collapsed plan that would have seen MEC's controlling shareholder, MI Developments Inc. (MID), spin off its majority stake in exchange for additional capital support in the form of temporary loans.

That plan disintegrated this week after MID said new debt financing for the deal was "unlikely" to be found, given "current global economic conditions [and] the continued disruptions in the financial markets."

As a result, US$274-million in outstanding loans that MEC owes MID will be called in next month, potentially triggering a feeding frenzy among MEC's other creditors.

If it is unable to repay that sum alongside an outstanding balance on a US$40-million credit facility to an unnamed Canadian chartered bank, "substantially all of its other current and long-term debt will also become due on demand," the company said.

MEC reported in its latest quarterly results it has more than US$600-million in debt sitting on its balance sheet. MEC has been attempting to sell assets including several racetracks for months to service debt.

MEC, the largest owner of horse racetracks in North America including Santa Anita in California, said negotiations with MID are continuing, which may include an extension on the repayment date of Mar. 20.

The possibility of a reprieve does exist.

"Look who the lender is and look at what the lender has done in the past," said an analyst that follows the company on Thursday. "Payment dates have come and gone."

MID has pumped hundreds of millions into MEC, which has lost at least US$500-million since 2003, and routinely granted extensions on loan repayments.

The latest came in October when MEC's board approved an extension on a $125-million bridge loan.

"The question you have to ask is, is the lender going to continue to?" the analyst said.

Minority shareholders in MID have grown intensely hostile toward the seemingly unbridled financial support it has given the gambling and horse-racing business.

The collapsed deal was designed to rid MID of its interests in MEC and place stringent rules on any future transactions between the two firms.

Shares in MEC plummeted more than 24% to an even 50¢ on the TSX on Thursday. MID's stock price fell 6% to $7.87. Calls to MEC and MID were not returned. Mr. Stronach is the chairman of both companies.

MEC's precarious situation is compounding the magnate's difficulties as Magna International Inc. faces off against the worst crisis to hit the auto industry in the post-war period.

The company, which he founded, reported its first quarterly loss in 17 years in November and said it was braced for a lengthy auto-sales slump in North America and Europe.

Magna, which has shuttered plants and initiated layoffs to combat the crisis, is set to report fourth-quarter results next week.

Card-card issuers told to tighten up lending as defaults rise

By J. Sturgeon | Financial Post | Feb. 4, 2009

Credit-card issuers are being advised to run regular credit checks, reduce limits on certain cardholders and even close inactive accounts after a report yesterday said delinquencies are on the rise.

Unpaid credit-card bills have been piling up since the financial crisis morphed into recession in the fall, a new report from accounting giant Deloitte says, putting as much at $800-million in jeopardy of being written off.

Households have glutted themselves on debt for the past half-decade, increasing total credit-card liabilities by 40% to $80-billion. As the jobless rate climbed and income generation began to grind to a halt late last year, delinquent accounts jumped by 5% to 10%, said the report's authors.

Now, the spectre of a wave of delinquencies hangs over issuers' balance sheets.

"Canadian consumer debt levels are higher then they were in previous cycles," said banking analyst Robert Sedran of National Bank Financial, adding that he has forecast loss rates to climb higher in 2009.

Historically, Canadian credit-card issuers which include the chartered banks, credit unions, U. S. subsidiaries such as Amex Bank of Canada and big retailers, absorb losses of about 4% annually, the report said.

Yet the delinquency rate has increased by between 50 and 100 basis points since October, with the likelihood that losses will grow, said Mr. Sedran.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, for example, has already witnessed its loss rate climb above 5% last quarter, the analyst said.

"Where they get to, that's the big question for the year."

The advice Deloitte gives issuers looking to preserve their balance sheets include more credit checks, the ending of automatic account increases and, in some cases, reducing limits or eliminating accounts "where there has been a deterioration in the credit score."

The report also advises institutions to establish a "watch-list" on accounts with "unusually high" use of cash advances.

"Circumstances for cardholders are changing quickly," said Pat Daley, partner at Deloitte and one of the report's authors. "Customers who had impeccable credit scores six months ago may be in trouble today."

Some of the more than 23 issuers in Canada have already moved to tighten standards.

Canadian Tire Corp. said this week it was raising the general interest rate on late payments from its retail cardholders

to 19.5% from 18.99%, annualized. Toronto-Dominion Bank changed agreement terms at the beginning of December, raising rates to almost 25% on overdue accounts.

The report follows measures outlined in last week's federal budget to kick-start the flow of credit back to cash-strapped consumers, including easing pressure on indebted cardholders. Jim Flaherty, the Minister of Finance, said the budget would enhance disclosure requirements on banks and institutions that offer credit cards to help determine costs, revenues and profit margins on services, information institutions are not compelled to divulge under current legislation.

Critics have charged that the proposals specific to credit-card issuers are just too vague.

National Bank's Mr. Sedran said he has not received any tangible guidance that banks are implementing more stringent measures yet, but said he expects them to in the near future.

"You tend to relax some of your lending standards when the economy is performing well and you tend to tighten them when the economy isn't performing well because obviously the risks are rising."

Review: Modern economics for disaffected investors

By J. Sturgeon | Financial Post | Jan. 31, 2009
Markets have crashed, savings have been wrecked for many and the spectre of a deep recession looms large. It's little wonder that modern capitalism is drawing ire in certain corners.

The system, it seems, has spun out of control.

Timely, then, that David Serber, an author who doubles as portfolio manager with one of Canada's largest financial institutions, has offered up a refreshing primer on the machinations of modern economics for disaffected investors.

Best of all, Inflation, China and Oil:How to Protect and Enhance Your Wealth in the Early 21st Century manages to do it in just 85 pages.

In about an hour and a half, one can take up the history of capitalism from Smith to Keynes to Reagan and Thatcher, as well as grasp the primary economic movers of the coming decades: China, oil and the threat of inflation.

The ultimate aim is to arm potential investors with an understanding of the broader processes shaping the global economy and provide a long-term strategy to manage accordingly. It's a task Mr. Serber does effectively.

The crux of the book is straightforward: China's economic ascent will continue to fundamentally change the global economy. Its growth will keep global thirst for energy high, meaning oil will remain a sought-after resource --even as its price rises.

As the building blocks of economic activity, commodities, too, will remain in demand by ever-hungrier economies, driving up costs on everything from food to consumer goods.

These intertwined processes will, of course, fan inflation, dragging down the value of currencies, especially in the West, where soaring public debt is adding to inflationary forces.

However, the book has a subtext: The market works best unimpeded. Government tampering, Mr. Serber says, distorts the ebb and flow of supply and demand and encumbers economic progress.

Mr. Serber even advances the argument that, much like the church was separated from the state in the West long ago, global economies should be separated from government, too.

Overall, though, the book is balanced between Mr. Serber's own faith in the free market and some acknowledgement of ideas favouring a degree of government guidance in the economy.

Page by page, he advocates the former but leaves readers some room to think for themselves, ending each of the four chapters with advice on how they might construct a balanced portfolio that can withstand bumps in the road while tapping into longer-range opportunities.

jasturgeon@nationalpost.com

GM loosening consumer credit as bailout funds flow

By Jamie Sturgeon | Financial Post | Dec. 30, 2008


General Motors Corp.'s lending arm, GMAC Financial Services LLC, said Tuesday it has immediately loosened consumer access to credit in the U.S. after Washington bought US$5-billion worth of preferred equity in the company.

The U.S. Treasury waded further into the waters in which the American automotive industry is treading late Monday, using cash originally set aside to aid failing banks to buy the 8%-dividend paying stake in GMAC "as part of a broader program to assist the domestic automotive industry in becoming financially viable."

"The actions of the federal government to support GMAC are having an immediate and meaningful effect on our ability to provide credit to automotive customers," said Bill Muir, president of GMAC, in a statement. "We will continue to employ responsible credit standards, but will be able to relax constraints we put in place a few months ago due to the credit crisis."

General Motors Crop. said in a conference call it would begin offering 0% financing up to 60 months on certain 2008 and 2009 models in an attempt to turn plummeting U.S. sales around. The company also signalled it could resume leasing.

"It is something we are looking at," said Mark LaNeve, chief executive of North American sales.

The implications for Canada, where governments have already extended $4-billion in taxpayer-backed loans to GM and Chrysler, are uncertain.

"This is a positive situation, but I don't know how positive it is," said Dennis DesRosiers, president of DesRosiers Automotive Consultants Inc. in Richmond Hill, Ont. "U.S. consumers aren't buying, fixing GMAC should help them come back to the marketplace."

It is another sign though that Washington is unwilling to let GM, Chrysler LLC or Ford Motor Co. fail.

Treasury officials said money for the equity purchase in GMAC has come from a new, separate fund within its Troubled Asset Relief Program dedicated wholly to the auto industry.

More than US$17-billion has already been made available to the Detroit Three from TARP funds as they restructure, a move that received proportionate backing for their Canadian operations from Ottawa and the province of Ontario on Dec. 20.

Most analysts say it likely isn't enough to see the companies through their restructuring as market conditions continue to slump, meaning more capital will be needed from Washington, and in turn, Ottawa.

Still, Himanshu Patel, auto analyst at J.P. Morgan said the GMAC bailout reduces the chances of a bankruptcy filing at GM.

"While an eventual GM Chapter 11 cannot be entirely dismissed if various stakeholders fail to meet required concessions, federal aid to GMAC suggests the government is probably now so entangled ... a Chapter 7 liquidation seems highly unlikely," he wrote in a note to clients.

Financial difficulties at GMAC as well as Chrysler Financial have directly hit GM and Chrysler sales, Michael J. Jackson, chief executive of AutoNation Inc., told the Wall Street Journal.

GMAC, which engaged in pushing riskier adjustable-rate mortgages that fueled the U.S. subprime housing boom, has restricted credit and raised lending standards in recent months as its own finances have deteriorated.

The lender, which was approved by the U.S. Federal Reserve last week to become a bank-holding company therefore qualifying for TARP, is the traditional source for many GM buyers.

GM of Canada sales were down 23% in November. Sales were off more than 40% year-over-year in the U.S.

"Consumer credit is the jet fuel of the auto business," Mr. Jackson said in a recent interview. "The majority of consumers can't buy a car without getting a loan."

The U.S. Treasury said it would also give an additional US$1-billion to GM to allowing it to participate in an equity offering by GMAC as it tries to raise more capital. The loan adds to the US$9.4-billion the U.S. Treasury is lending GM, the largest automaker in North America.