By Jamie Sturgeon | Financial Post | 05. 30. 2009It's a not an easy position to be in, but it is an enviable one. Nadir Mohamed was elevated to the corner office of Rogers Communications Inc., the largest wireless and cable company in Canada, in March. His job since has been to keep it there.
The challenges are tall for the new chief executive, who succeeded company figurehead and founder, Ted Rogers after his passing in early December.
They loom largest in wireless, a division that has become a formidable earnings engine, but is now threatened by structural shifts taking place across the industry. To start, he must maintain Rogers' edge over national rivals Bell Canada and Telus Corp., who are quickly catching up in a range of areas.
He must also guard the company's current share of the wireless-subscriber pie from new entrants eager to syphon off customers looking for better products and services for less money. All the while, he must ensure Rogers' other lines of business in cable and media remain profitable.
Most importantly, though, the 52-year-old telecom veteran must ready the company -- and shareholder expectations -- for a period of slower growth.
"The world is changing," Mr. Mohamed said in an interview. "How we won the last five years is going to be different from how we win going forward."
For more than half a decade, Rogers has been the unequivocal market leader in pushing consumer adoption for wireless and cable services. It has become No. 1 because it has built out the most advanced networks and offered the latest devices. But now, the company is at risk of being a victim of its own success as nearly seven in 10 Canadians own a mobile phone and about the same amount subscribe to digital or cable TV.
The company has reached an inflection point, Mr. Mohamed says. To be sure, there's room to grow, just not as quickly.
"No question that when I look ahead toward the next five years, growth is going to be much more modest."
Gone are the days of debt-leveraged blistering growth. Protecting market share, returning value to shareholders and a keen eye on controlling costs are Mr. Mohamed's intentions. In short, they're the hallmarks of a company that is maturing.
The new direction Mr. Mohamed is taking has already been felt. The company nearly doubled its quarterly dividend to 58¢ last quarter. More telling was the ballooning of the company's share-buyback program to $1.5-billion -- or about 10% of common stock -- from an initial $300-million, announced this month.
"The move toward a share buyback has been very positive. They're saying we want to return value to stockholders," said Dvai Ghose, equity analyst at Genuity Capital Markets.
"The problem with being a mature company is that you tend to be fat and lazy. What the company has to do is show it hasn't lost that entrepreneurial spirit. It's a delicate balance."
Despite commanding the biggest share of wireless and cable subscriptions in the country, Rogers can hardly afford to grow complacent now. Alongside slowing penetration among consumers, there is increasing competition to pick up the slack, most pressingly in wireless.
Revenue in the unit, which accounted for over half of $11-billion Rogers took in last year, faces new pressure on multiple fronts.
Declining prices on voice plans from discount brands is driving down average revenue per subscriber for all three major wireless operators. Rogers, Telus and Bell all operate their own so-called "flanker" brands in Fido, Koodo, Solo and Virgin.
The larger threat, however, comes from a clutch of soon-to-be rivals in Globalive Communications, DAVE Wireless and Public Mobile who are readying to launch later this year or early next with widely anticipated cheaper plans.
"That's going to create pressure, no doubt," Mr. Mohamed said. "But there really are two games being played out. At the higher end is the core of what we're trying to do at Rogers."
With limited network capacity, the smaller entrants will likely be focused on voice and text plans, analysts say.
Rogers is aiming for the much more lucrative data-heavy users, which represent the future of the industry, the CEO says. "It's all about mobile Internet and data, the iPhone and BlackBerry and now Android."
Mr. Mohamed must also keep an eye on what the other incumbents have planned. Both Bell Canada and Telus are introducing new networks early next year that will rival Rogers' own. The rollout will enable the two to offer advanced devices such as Apple Inc.'s iPhone or the HTC Dream and Magic powered by Google Inc.'s vaunted Android platform. Rogers is the exclusive carrier of the iPhone currently and is introducing the Google handsets this week.
"The question is, who has the best network quality in terms of reliability and speed? I think it will be a while before the others get there," he said "And we're not sitting still either."
Investment in network technology will remain a chief concern. However, as growth slows the focus will be on retaining customers, Mr. Mohamed said. Long derided for its inattention to customer service and opaque billing structure, the new CEO said yesterday Rogers is investing heavily in a new integrated system subscribers will clearly understand.
"We think the next battle will be fought closer to the customer," he said. "The network is our strength and we'll continue to build on that. But there is a layer on top of that, which is the interaction with the customer."
For a slowing company, that will be crucial if it hopes to continue to win.
jasturgeon@nationalpost.com
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